2026 career projections: Will McDavid, Crosby or MacKinnon reach 2,000 points?
Welcome to our third annual projection of every NHL player’s final career totals.
We’re officially inside the final month of another electric season. Before the playoff races approach the finish line, it’s a sweet spot to update individual career forecasts. You can check out our 2025 projections and the inaugural 2024 projections. Armed with another year of data for the game’s brightest stars, we’re running the numbers and exploring fun questions about the future.
How likely is a second member of the 2,000-point club? Does anyone have a shot at Alex Ovechkin’s career goal record? How much damage have two frustrating seasons done to Auston Matthews’ outlook? How many active players will score 600 goals? Does Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes have the better forecast?
Lace up your skates and join us… in the future.
🔮 The Approach
We’re using a simple and effective technique from Bill James, the revolutionary baseball statistician. Called his “Favorite Toy,” it’s a blunt instrument that projects career totals and the probability of reaching any individual milestone. I’ve tweaked James’ formula slightly to fit the NHL, factoring in the physical challenges that players commonly have in their 30s from the demands of a contact sport.
The forecasts use only three factors: 1. age; 2. career totals; 3. weighted average of the last three seasons. Full stop. There’s no attempts to adjust for playing style, teammates, or a player’s future plans. Things change fast in the NHL. Most of us had Matthews and Mitch Marner making beautiful music together for another half-decade or more. Or Steven Stamkos done with 30-goal seasons. It’s a reminder that projecting years into the future is a best guess — an objective attempt based on a player’s current state.
One note on the projections: the NHL adds two regular-season games to its calendar next season, bumping the schedule to 84 games. This has been reflected in the forecasts, slightly boosting future stat lines.
At the end of today’s article, we’ll provide the complete top 75 forecasted stat lines among active players.
🥅 Projected Points
#1: Six active players have a chance to join Gretzky in the 2,000-point club.
With career forecasts, the back-of-the-napkin exercise often goes something like this: McDavid will get 137 points this season, so he’ll do that another three times. That gets him to 1,630 career points at age 32. Another five years averaging 100 points and he’ll pass 2,100 when he’s 37. Well, about that…
It’s fair to say that McDavid is a better point producer than Sidney Crosby through 11 seasons. McDavid has missed way fewer games than Crosby did in his 20s, McDavid has played in a more favorable environment, and he’s banked points at a higher rate. But Crosby’s aged like few players in NHL history, remaining very productive and durable for the last decade. That decade’s point total? 808. In a higher-scoring era, Wayne Gretzky had 878 points after his age-29 season (McDavid’s current juncture) before retiring at 38.
McDavid will need about 781 points beyond this season to reach 2,000. Very doable. But it’s no formality. Edmonton‘s captain will need to produce at Crosby’s level in his 30s, avoid serious injury, and play a decade with strong attendance. McDavid is a physical marvel, but he also plays with reckless abandon at a million miles per hour. Penciling him in for 75 games annually through 2036 would be a big leap. Just ask Leon Draisaitl. And what team will #97 be on? What style will they play? Will their power play still set records? The projection says it will be tight for McDavid — a 45% chance of 2,000 — with the most likely outcome of 1,960 points.
Nikita Kucherov, 32, and Nathan MacKinnon, 30, have outscored McDavid over the last three seasons, launching their chances at 2,000. MacKinnon (36%), Kucherov (21%), Crosby (14%), Draisaitl (10%), and David Pastrnak (8%) have a combined 88% chance, meaning one of these five should hit 2K.
#2: McDavid, Crosby, and MacKinnon have realistic shots at second all-time in points.
Jaromir Jagr sits second in career points (1,921) behind only Gretzky (2,857). At 56%, McDavid is the only player more likely to pass Jagr than not. Crosby and MacKinnon are each close behind at 45%. Assuming Crosby returns from his Olympic injury soon, he’ll enter 2026-27 around 1,761 points. Does he have another 160 left? The forecast gives 38-year-olds two more years and Crosby specifically gets 152 points — an average of 76 per season. Catching Jagr requires Crosby to play to 40 with strong health and output, or play a 24th NHL season at 41. Achievable, but not a lock.
#3: Scheifele, Panarin, Giroux projected to pass highest point total outside the Hall of Fame.
While not exactly a celebrated mark, Bernie Nicholls had 1,209 career points — the most points by a forward outside the Hockey Hall of Fame. Nicholls peaked in an extremely breezy scoring climate opposite Gretzky and never earned a Hart Trophy vote. Hart finalists Claude Giroux (2013-14) and Artemi Panarin (2019-20) are forecasted to retire with higher point totals than this unofficial cutoff, achieved in an era with much less offense. Same for Mark Scheifele, on pace for a career-high in points at age 33. None of these veterans got much Hall support in past public polling, but all are forecasted to produce eye-opening totals.
📈 Biggest Veteran Jump: Nick Suzuki, Montreal (+158 to 1,139 points)
📈 Biggest Early Career Jump: Morgan Geekie, Boston (+224 to 657 points)
📉 Biggest Veteran Drop: Matthew Tkachuk, Florida (-213 to 1,018 points)
📉 Biggest Early Career Drop: Jack Hughes, New Jersey (-115 to 982 points)
🚨 Projected Goals
#1: MacKinnon is the only one with a chance to pass Ovechkin in goals.
It’s been nearly one year since Ovechkin passed Gretzky’s ‘unbreakable’ record with his 895th career goal. The methodology gives one more season to any player aged 40-plus that hasn’t announced their retirement, so Ovechkin projects to retire with 958 goals. But he’s been eerily quiet about his future. For our discussion today, let’s say Ovi adds five goals and retires this offseason with 926 — the new, hallowed sniping record.
Only one player has a non-zero chance of catching Ovechkin. MacKinnon, the Rocket Richard Trophy front-runner, checks in at 2.2% and a projection of 686 goals. One year ago, Draisaitl (8.3%), Matthews (8.2%), and Pastrnak (4.4%) had paths to 926 goals. But for various reasons each will end 2025-26 with underwhelming goal counts in critical seasons in their primes. The collapse of Matthews’ odds to effectively nil is stunning — following up a 69-goal year with injury-fused seasons of 33 and 27 goals will do that. Matthews’ 428 goals to date, however, are six more than Ovechkin at the same age. Yes, really. So, Matthews’ odds aren’t truly zero. But it shows both how debilitating the last two seasons are on his record outlook and how incomprehensible it is that Ovechkin has 446 goals after turning 30.
What was the probability of Ovechkin scoring 926 goals when he was 28 years old, you might be thinking? 13%, or about one-in-eight odds.
#2: Six more active players are projected to join 600-goal club.
The 600-goal club has 22 members. All but six peaked predominantly in the scoring paradise of the 1970s through mid-1990s. Future first-ballot Hall of Famers Ovechkin, Stamkos, and Crosby have already hit the exclusive mark. The 600-goal crew is expected to add another six members: MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Matthews, Pastrnak, John Tavares, and McDavid. Stamkos (735) and Crosby (723) are forecasted to become only the ninth and tenth players to score 700 career goals.
#3: Reinhart, Connor, DeBrincat, Forsberg projected to join 500-goal club.
Some surprising names have better than even odds of scoring 500 goals, including Sam Reinhart (557), Winnipeg teammates Kyle Connor (548) and Scheifele (542), Alex DeBrincat (539), Filip Forsberg (536), Brayden Point (525), William Nylander (514), Sebastian Aho (507), and Jason Robertson (503). However, forecasts can also go south fast from a combination of injury and lost finishing touch. The projected totals of the following superstars dropped heavily from a year ago: Matthew Tkachuk (-68); Mikko Rantanen (-66); Point (-63); Brady Tkachuk (-49); and Matthews (-46).
📈 Biggest Veteran Jump: Tyler Bertuzzi, Chicago (+86 to 334 goals)
📈 Biggest Early Career Jump: Geekie, Boston (+141 to 359 goals)
📉 Biggest Veteran Drop: Patrik Laine, Montreal (-77 to 277 goals)
📉 Biggest Early Career Drop: Hughes, New Jersey (-64 to 367 goals)
⛔ Projected Points: Defensemen
#1: Makar and Hughes have remote chances of catching all-time defenseman points record.
Fittingly, the forecasts of Makar and Quinn Hughes are separated by just 15 points. Most notable, however? The pair are the only defenders with a statistical chance of catching Ray Bourque’s robust, record total of 1,579 points. Makar (7.0%) and Hughes (6.4%) still need more than a decade of all-world output to so much as squint at the record — each will still trail Bourque by more than 1,000 points at season’s end.
#2: Karlsson has a one-in-three chance to catch Lidstrom for 6th in career points.
Karlsson looks reborn under Dan Muse in Pittsburgh, playing sound defensively while on pace for 61 points. Under contract through 2027, the three-time Norris winner will need another deal to become only the ninth defenseman with 1,000 points. He’s still 35 with exceptional feet and hands, so is there a world where Karlsson chases a Stanley Cup until he’s 40? The forecast gives him a 33% chance at childhood idol Nicklas Lidstrom’s career total of 1,142 points. A tall order, but a fun thought.
#3: Many active defensemen have shots to join the exclusive 1,000-point club.
This is an exceptional era for offensive defensemen. Nineteen blueliners have non-zero probability of 1,000 points, led by Karlsson, Makar, and Hughes. But the next tier is interesting: Zach Werenski (49%); Rasmus Dahlin (48%) and Evan Bouchard (42%). Each has reached another tier of production in 2025-26 and will get Norris votes. Stick tap to Habs’ sophomore Lane Hutson, projected for 778 career points in his age-21 season.
📈 Biggest Veteran Jump: Werenski, Columbus (+104 to 993 points)
📈 Biggest Early Career Jump: Bouchard, Edmonton (+200 to 946 points)
📉 Biggest Veteran Drop: Neal Pionk, Winnipeg (-92 to 402 points)
📉 Biggest Early Career Drop: Alexander Romanov, NY Islanders (-96 to 169 points)
🎯 Top 75 Projected Points, Active Players
Some quick closing notes on the forecasts:
- A player needs three full-time seasons to establish a complete baseline performance in James’ methodology. So, Macklin Celebrini isn’t supposed to be forecasted yet. Celebrini is still projected at 1,032 career points. Crosby as a 19-year-old? 1,195 points.
- By design, the projection system is kinder to veterans because the longer one has played in the NHL, the more likely the player will have a long career. Naturally, someone good and healthy enough to remain active as a 33-year-old is more likely to play deep into their 30s than a 23-year-old with much uncertainty ahead.
- Here are notable career projections outside the top 75:
- 🎯 Forwards:
- Mathew Barzal: 268 goals, 912 points
- Tage Thompson: 480 goals, 908 points
- Cole Caufield: 485 goals, 891 points
- Elias Pettersson: 334 goals, 883 points
- Seth Jarvis: 433 goals, 877 points
- Tom Wilson: 357 goals, 758 points
- Juraj Slafkovsky: 312 goals, 753 points
- Zach Hyman: 416 goals, 738 points
- Alexis Lafreniere: 301 goals, 682 points
- Quinton Byfield: 238 goals, 610 points
- 🎯 Defensemen:
- Morgan Rielly: 140 goals, 773 points
- Charlie McAvoy: 127 goals, 662 points
- Jake Sanderson: 140 goals, 649 points
- Moritz Seider: 115 goals, 538 points
- Luke Hughes: 96 goals, 528 points
- Brock Faber: 152 goals, 517 points
- Owen Power: 88 goals, 430 points
- 🎯 Forwards:
Data from Hockey-Reference; NHL.com; projections based on games through March 12, 2026
_____
Recently by Paul Pidutti
- Setting up the major stat races on the NHL’s stretch drive
- Are first-round draft picks overrated trade targets?
- Ranking the retools: Canucks light years from Cup contention, Islanders trending up
- Five NHL players who desperately need to deliver at the Olympics
_____
PRESENTED BY STAKE
